Use Case · Customer Winback

Catch the Churn Signal.
Win Back the Customer.
Hold the LTV.

AI retention agents over-offer 30 to 40 percent of the time. They give 30 percent off to customers who would have stayed at 10. They stack discounts the offer engine never authorised. We score the churn signal, match the offer to LTV, and stop the margin giveaway before it commits.

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The pattern

How $640K in margin walked out
through the retention queue.

A $280M D2C subscription brand. 280K paid subscribers. 5 percent monthly churn. Their AI retention agent had been live for nine months and the team thought it was working.

The Gate caught the truth. Their AI was offering 30 percent discounts to customers whose cancellation intent confidence was 60 percent. It was stacking LOYALTY-001 with WINBACK-003, a combination the offer engine never authorised. It was extending two-month free trials to customers whose LTV did not justify a one-month offer. 40 percent of all retention offers were either unnecessary or oversized.

By Q3, the leak showed: $640K in retention margin given away across one quarter. By Q4, with Navedas's Decision Gate scoring every churn signal and citing every offer, retention rates held and offer costs dropped 67 percent.

What you actually win

Four outcomes.
Retention without the giveaway.

OUTCOME 01

Score the churn signal before you respond.

Do not extend retention offers to customers who were not leaving. Pre-decision intent scoring. Confidence threshold cited on every offer that ships.

OUTCOME 02

Match the offer to LTV, not to the loudest customer.

A 30 percent discount belongs to a $5K LTV customer, not a $200 trial-user. The Decision Gate ties offer size to lifetime value, every time.

OUTCOME 03

Enforce stacking rules on every retention offer.

LOYALTY-001 + WINBACK-003 either cited together or blocked. No off-policy stacks. No unauthorised discount math.

OUTCOME 04

Trace every win-back to a policy node.

Audit-ready record of why each retention offer shipped. Reasoning Ledger captures the LTV, the intent score, the policy citation, the verdict.

The Decision Gate, live

One churn signal.
$84 saved. 1 right offer.

Operator Console
LIVE
⚑ DECISION GATE · Over-Offer Blocked
AI-Retention-Agent-04 proposed 30% off + 2 free months to retain subscriber #84291 ($84/year tier). Decision Gate blocked the offer. Three policy constraints triggered.
📎 STACK-002 §1.4 · LTV-001 §3.1 · WINBACK-003 §2.1
Reasoning trace
Input: Cancellation intent detected · proposed 30% + 2mo free
Gate 1: Customer LTV $84/yr · offer cost exceeds 6-month LTV ✗
Gate 2: Offer stacking violates STACK-002 §1.4 (multiplicative ban) ✗
Intent confidence: 67% (below 80% high-cost retention threshold) ⚑
⊘ BLOCKED
3/3 gates · $84 retention cost saved
✓ OFFER 1 FREE MONTH
per WINBACK-003 §2.1 · 80% retain odds
◆ Speaks subscription & retention fluently
LTV · CLV MRR · ARR Voluntary churn Involuntary churn Cohort retention Recurly · Chargebee Stripe Billing Klaviyo · Braze Customer.io Cancellation funnels Offer stacking rules NPS & CSAT triggers
The math

5K cancellations a quarter.
30–40% over-offered. $60K–$80K leaking.

Volume
5,000+
cancellation signals / qtr
Over-offer rate
30–40%
industry standard
Avg over-offer
$40
per retained customer
Quarterly recovery
$54–72K
90% over-offer reduction

And the retention rate holds. The Gate offers smaller, cited, LTV-matched offers. Same customers saved. Less margin spent.

How we deliver

Audit → Co-Build → Operate.
Two FDEs embed. You own the stack.

Five stages, three commercial milestones. Two Navedas engineers embed in your retention operation for 10 to 14 weeks. When we leave, the Context Graph (your offer rules), the Decision Gate config (your LTV thresholds), and the Reasoning Ledger (your retention audit trail) are all yours.

See the full delivery stack →
◆ See your over-offer rate before you scale

Run a Winback Audit.
$500. 48 hours.

Ship us 1,000 of your last retention offers. We map them against your LTV thresholds and stacking rules. You get the exact dollars you are over-offering, the policy nodes each offer violated, and a recovery plan you can sign on Monday. Money back if exposure is under $25K.

Start your audit · $500 Talk to a Co-Build engineer →